2015年3月30日星期一

Complex game (Sylodium, global import export platform)

Multi-polar world: new international trade.

No longer the world of the twentieth century dominated by the US and Europe.

We are in a twenty-first century, multi-polar world, living this new geo-political reality, and a new landscape of international trade. We can’t even talk about US and China like unique super powers in the current world. 

The emerging countries - China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia or South Africa, for example,  are no longer policy takers, but are significantly influencing the pattern and scope of new international trade, they are creating new supply and demand,  pulls and flexing their influence in international organisations, in part, because developing countries are now the largest market for other developing countries. 

No more, we can’t talk about the paradigm of North-South trade, now,  South-South trade has risen; Asian countries make up more than 80 per cent of South-South trade, Africa  about 6 per cent and Latin America about 10 per cent in recent years. 

As WTO hasn’t enough power, global multilateral trade talks have stalled. The world is fragmenting into competing trading blocs (TPPASEAN +6, US-EU FTA...). How would these agreements impact regions excluded from negotiations, such as Africa?

How could be the next international game in this Multipolar World?  


Sylodium新型进出口贸易信息平台

多极世界的贸易:全新的国际贸易格局
目前全球贸易已经不再是20世界美国和欧洲主宰的国际贸易了。

现在是21世纪了,处于一个多极的世界,地缘政治面貌也焕然一新,全球贸易呈现多样的变化。我们也不能够再说美国与中国是目前世界上的两大霸主了。

新兴国家例如中国、印度、巴西、墨西哥、印尼、马来西亚和南非已经不再是旧的贸易格局里政策的执行者,而是显著地影响着全新国际贸易的类型和范围,他们正在创造新的供应和需求,提高他们在国际组织中的影响力,部分原因是这些发展中国家现在相对于其他发展中国家来说是最大的市场。

再者,我们已经无法仅仅讨论南北贸易了,现在,南南贸易呈现不断上升的趋势;近年来,亚洲国家占南南贸易中80%以上,非洲约6%,拉丁美洲10%左右。

仅仅一个世界贸易组织力量远远不够,全球多边贸易谈判已陷入僵局。世界正在分裂成相互竞争的贸易集团(TPP,东盟+6,美国 - 欧盟自贸区等)。然而,这些贸易谈判所影响的地区独独少了非洲这一块大陆,这难道不令人匪夷所思吗?


多极世界的另一轮比拼会是什么样子呢?在这一个多极世界,不会有任何帝国称霸世界。

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